February 11, 2011

A momentous day in Egyptian and world history whose true significance won't be known and cannot be judged for a long time.

The implications of the Egyptian Revolution in 2011 for the country itself, the Arab region as well as the international community are plentiful and vary widely.

For Egypt it is a new beginning and as my Egyptian friend opened my eyes, the first time that Egyptians have the opportunity to actually rule their own country. After pharaohs, many foreign oppressors and a chain of dictators which now ends after the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak, the people of Egypt are finally able to shape their own destiny. I daresay that no Western college student can imagine, let alone begin to understand, the sense of liberation young Egyptians feel seeing the end of a regime that was in place before they were born and they had not thought possible to overthrow until three weeks ago. 

The most pressing domestic questions now are: How is it all going to turn out for the nation? Will Egypt regain its stability under a democratic, secular government? What are the alternatives, a state in chaos without clear leadership? Will the military relinquish the powers now vested in it to allow a transition to popular government? Most importantly, will the new government be effective in addressing the economic and socio-political challenges of the nation?

Inspired by the success of the Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions, demonstrations and protests are erupting in many Arab countries. Most are met with brutal force from the autocratic government they seek to overthrow. At this point, no one can predict how far the achievement of the Egyptian and Tunisian people will ripple across the Middle East. Undoubtedly, however, Egypt provides a tremendous precedent because of its importance to the region as well as the previous unlikelihood of regime change. If there is a continued ripple effect among Arab nations, February 11, 2011 may very well be in the neighborhood of November 9, 1989, when the fall of the Soviet Union and the democratization of Eastern Europe began with the removal of the Iron Curtain. The third wave of democratization would finally arrive in the Middle East.

For the international community, the demise of the Mubarak regime and the potential democratization of Egypt pose an entirely new challenge. While self-determination is widely supported around the globe, immediate concerns revolve around the stability of the country and the region. World leaders were reluctant to fully support the peaceful protesters because they were uncertain about the outcome of the demonstrations. Foreign powers couldn't afford to alienate Mubarak if he were to remain in power. Only after the protesters proved to be persistent, governments began to call for reform. When protesters made clear that an orderly transition in September would not be enough, leaders fully supported the democratic movement, implicitly asking for Mubarak’s immediate resignation. This delayed response exhibits the double standard applied by many governments in assessing and responding to the situation. While promoting democracy and human rights on an everyday basis, these principles seem to lose importance in the face of possible destabilization of an ally, no matter how gruesome that ally maybe. The threshold for a shift in tone regarding fundamental displays of democratic movement seems to be generally high and the outcome has to be clear for it to occur. It will be very interesting to watch how this wait-and-see policy continues to evolve as the transition in Egypt progresses and especially if and which governments start to erode in the future.

While there are many uncertainties about the gravity and influence of the events in Egypt to date it cannot be denied that history has already been made regardless and everyone should be aware of that and take a minute to look at the following video to honor the moment: