Domino Theory?!

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A month after the Tunisians freed themselves and one week after the Egyptian Revolution succeeded in ousting President Hosni Mubarak after three decades, protests have erupted and continued in various other Arab nations. As I said earlier, no one can predict the outcome of the entailing demonstrations in other nations but the longer they go on, the greater their potential for success becomes.

The driving forces behind all protest are the young generations who in most cases have never known a different regime than the one they have been ruled by their entire lives. In all Arab nations that are experiencing unrest and demands for reform and/or regime change the median age ranges from 17 to 30 years. In all cases the youth unemployment rate is very high. Therefor, change for the sake of a more democratic government is not the sole motivation of the protesters. The economic situation and level poverty and literacy also play a decisive role, even in the oil-rich gulf nations.

A prime example is the Kingdom of Bahrain. It has been experiencing protests even before Mubarak was overthrown. A BBC article considered Bahrain to be the potential “next domino to fall” even though, according to the Economists Unrest Index, it had the lowest probability for popular uprising. The instability of a small and wealthy nation such as Bahrain is the next step in the evolution of Middle Eastern protest, especially since it has been ruled by one royal family since the 18^th century and previously attempted political and economic reforms to meet the demands of its citizenry. If Bahrain were to be the next domino to fall, it would set yet another precedent that could pose enormous threats to other Monarchs in Jordan, Saudi-Arabia and other small gulf states. Lastly, the international and especially US reaction to the protest will be closely watched as world leader once again try to balance intangible principles of self-determination with very tangible economic and military interests (The US Navy 5^th Fleet is stationed in Bahrain).

While Bahrain is a luxury example, countries such as Libya, Algeria, Morocco and Yemen are vastly poor and underdeveloped and are being ruled by dictators who have been in power for decades. Here, the motivation is ample frustration with all expect of governmental (in)action and the potential for reform is small because of financial limitations of the respective administrations. If any of those dictators were overthrown, most other may eventually follow. The greater the number of precedents grows the more encouraged and bolder other democratization movements will become. Once serious unrest spreads to the strong police state of Syria, anything is possible.

The Islamic Republic of Iran presents a case different from all others. After the 2009 Presidential elections the country experienced widespread protest and violent clashes between the opposition and police forces but the regime prevailed. The newly arising tensions between the Iranian government and the opposition have the least potential to overthrow the existing regime because the country is greatly divided into pro- and anti-government groups. There is no vast majority of greatly frustrated citizens as is the case in all other countries. Additionally, the Iranian security forces have not shied away from violence against protesters in the past. A chance remains that the current protest can development into more than those in 2009 but in Iran, the chances are clearly the smallest.

Taking the latest developments and future outlook into consideration, we may very well be witnessing fundamental changes in the dynamics of an entire region of the world which will alter the way we perceive international relations to a so far unfathomable extent.

What does this have to do with a Rhetoric and Civic Life blog? I believe that the events in the Middle East and particularly their significance have gone vastly unnoticed among many Americans or have just not been up for discussion. Since this is a blog that can  address issues of civil discourse, my goal with the last  two blogs was to draw more attention to the history unfolding and encourage awareness of and conversation on the topic.